A section of Czech JAS 39 Gripens during a Baltic Air Policing mission in Lithuania. The Philippines ... [+]
A report from the Singapore Airshow yesterday affirmed that the Philippines is close to entering negotiations to buy fighter jets from Sweden to bolster its defense.
The reporting in Defense News was partly based on a release from the Philippines’ Defense Department. It noted that the Philippines and Sweden are currently working through the details of a defense cooperation agreement based on a memorandum of understanding signed last June and ratified in September 2023.
The agreement would pave the way for Sweden to offer Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen as a candidate for the Philippines’ multirole fighter jet program. According to Defense News, the governments are expected to sign a deal at a meeting in March.
The Southeast Asian country’s Air Force was established shortly after WWII and until 2013 used American fighter aircraft exclusively. At that time, it acquired a dozen Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 light attack aircraft from South Korea to partly fill the gap left by the retirement of its fleet of Northrop F-5 fighter jets in 2005.
While the FA-50 is a capable aircraft, it is not a true 4.5-generation multirole fighter. The Philippine Air Force has considered other types to fulfill its multirole fighter requirement including the F-16.
The State Department approved the sale of 10 F-16C Block 70/72 and two F-16D Block 70/72 aircraft in 2021 in a reported $2.43 billion package. But with the Philippine government only setting aside $1.1 billion for the acquisition, the deal has not gone forward.
The single-engine Gripen has had a tough slog in the international marketplace since its service introduction with the Swedish Air Force in the mid-1990s. Exports thus far (some only leases) have been limited to the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, Thailand and Brazil.
A Brazilian Air Force Saab JAS 39 Gripen E flies past the monument to Christ the Redeemer in Rio de ... [+]
The latest Gripen E/F variants combine digital cockpits with a developed variant of the General Electric F414G that powers the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, active, electronically-scanned array (AESA) radars, an infra-red search and track (IRST) sensor, and 10 under-wing hardpoints. The aircraft can carry a range of air-to-air, anti-ship missiles including the long-range MBDA Meteor, AIM-9 Sidewinder, IRIS-T, RBS-15 as well as GBU-49 laser-guided bombs.
With external fuel tanks, the Gripen E is said to possess an 810-mile (1,300 kilometer) combat radius when carrying a load of six air to air missiles. Though more expensive than previous variants, the latest Gripen E is estimated to cost somewhere in the range of $85 million per copy.
That’s important Aerodynamic Advisory’s Richard Aboulafia says.
“The Philippines is in the bottom bracket in terms of price points – it mostly buys used, old combat aircraft, with the exception of the 12 FA-50s, which are the least expensive supersonic combat jet on the market.”
“Gripen is not particularly low cost as a new jet, but used aircraft are available for sale at very low prices, and Saab has made it even more affordable by offering leased aircraft. Nobody else does that.”
Aboulafia also notes that the Saab is designed to be easy to maintain and to have relatively low operating costs - key for a country with limited sustainment capabilities. It is also an effective aircraft in its own right.
“It’s a tremendous entry-level fighter,” Aboulafia says, “with a high degree of maintainability. One negative is its record of [export sales] failure over three decades.”
Its lack of success might be attributed to its market competition over that time with other 4th generation offerings from the Eurofighter Typhoon and France’s Rafale to the F-16. “The price tag for the Gripen E/F is awfully similar to an F-16 and the F-16 is a fantastic value,” Aboulafia adds.
The F-16 also has a proven combat record. However, the Gripen recently got a boost with reports of its performance against People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Su-27s. In joint exercises with the PLAAF in 2015, the Royal Thai Air Force's (RTAF) JAS 39 C/D Gripens demonstrated superior performance in beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagements with the heavier Chinese fighters of Soviet design, achieving 88% of their kills at 19 miles or greater.
The game has moved on since 2015 but the Gripen Es that the Philippines is considering are more capable aircraft than the older RTAF JAS 39s. Thailand operates a dozen Gripen C/Ds and was reported to be looking into acquiring several more last summer. Like the Philippines, it has KAI’s light attack jet as well, operating 14 examples of the T-50TH as a lead-in fighter-trainer.
The fact that the two Asian countries could end up operating the same equipment is ironic Richard Aboulafia says considering that KAI and Saab are competitors in the lower cost fighter market.
“The natural enemy of used Gripens in this part of the world is the T-50 series. It has sold in the Philippines, in Indonesia and Thailand. Maybe there’s an argument for a varsity-junior varsity high-low Gripen/T-50 mix here.”
Operating a similar aircraft to its Thai neighbors might benefit the Philippines though Thailand’s closer relationship with China is problematic.
From Saab’s standpoint, there are synergies to argue and the potential for Gripen success in the Philippines to lead to sales success in Malaysia which has retired its MiG-29 fleet and has become wary of sticking with its difficult to maintain and support Sukhoi Su-30MKM ground-attack aircraft.
“Russia is going away as an arms supplier and not coming back anytime soon,” Aboulafia points out. “Everyone is going after the low-cost MiG-29 market. I would think Gripen may be pretty well placed [for Malaysia].”
The Gripen may benefit from a vacuum of lower cost 4-4.5th generation fighter offerings in Asia and ... [+]
The Swedish fighter may occupy this position by default. Despite regional ambitions to expand domestic defense aerospace capacity in Asia from India to South Korea and Japan, the near-term new offerings from these players are 5th and 6th generation airplanes like KAI’s KF-21 Boramae or Japan’s Mitsubishi F-X. That leaves a vacuum into which the Gripen might fly.
“There’s just not a lot on the market,” Aboulafia agrees. A Philippine Gripen purchase would likely sit well enough with the U.S. government (not as well as an F-16 buy) which would view a NATO-compatible fighter as a positive given Pacific allies with similar western equipment.
Swedish influence with international partners cannot compare to that of the U.S., France or Britain Aboulafia says but he agrees there’s an opportunity here that could exist for a brief window. If that is the case, Saab would do well to seize it.
